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Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2026
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Summary Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long‐term warming.Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases – leaf‐out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring.We showed that warming advanced leaf‐out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf‐out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended.Together, these results suggest that the real‐world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase.more » « less
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Ecosystems are experiencing changing global patterns of mean annual precipitation (MAP) and enrichment with multiple nutrients that potentially colimit plant biomass production. In grasslands, mean aboveground plant biomass is closely related to MAP, but how this relationship changes after enrichment with multiple nutrients remains unclear. We hypothesized the global biomass–MAP relationship becomes steeper with an increasing number of added nutrients, with increases in steepness corresponding to the form of interaction among added nutrients and with increased mediation by changes in plant community diversity. We measured aboveground plant biomass production and species diversity in 71 grasslands on six continents representing the global span of grassland MAP, diversity, management, and soils. We fertilized all sites with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium with micronutrients in all combinations to identify which nutrients limited biomass at each site. As hypothesized, fertilizing with one, two, or three nutrients progressively steepened the global biomass–MAP relationship. The magnitude of the increase in steepness corresponded to whether sites were not limited by nitrogen or phosphorus, were limited by either one, or were colimited by both in additive, or synergistic forms. Unexpectedly, we found only weak evidence for mediation of biomass–MAP relationships by plant community diversity because relationships of species richness, evenness, and beta diversity to MAP and to biomass were weak or opposing. Site-level properties including baseline biomass production, soils, and management explained little variation in biomass–MAP relationships. These findings reveal multiple nutrient colimitation as a defining feature of the global grassland biomass–MAP relationship.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 15, 2026
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Abstract The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average1and plant communities are responding through shifts in species abundance, composition and distribution2–4. However, the direction and magnitude of local changes in plant diversity in the Arctic have not been quantified. Using a compilation of 42,234 records of 490 vascular plant species from 2,174 plots across the Arctic, here we quantified temporal changes in species richness and composition through repeat surveys between 1981 and 2022. We also identified the geographical, climatic and biotic drivers behind these changes. We found greater species richness at lower latitudes and warmer sites, but no indication that, on average, species richness had changed directionally over time. However, species turnover was widespread, with 59% of plots gaining and/or losing species. Proportions of species gains and losses were greater where temperatures had increased the most. Shrub expansion, particularly of erect shrubs, was associated with greater species losses and decreasing species richness. Despite changes in plant composition, Arctic plant communities did not become more similar to each other, suggesting no biotic homogenization so far. Overall, Arctic plant communities changed in richness and composition in different directions, with temperature and plant–plant interactions emerging as the main drivers of change. Our findings demonstrate how climate and biotic drivers can act in concert to alter plant composition, which could precede future biodiversity changes that are likely to affect ecosystem function, wildlife habitats and the livelihoods of Arctic peoples5,6.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 30, 2026
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Vegetation change of the Arctic tundra due to global warming is a well-known process, but the implication for the belowground microbial communities, key in nutrient cycling and decomposition, is poorly understood. We characterized the fungal and bacterial abundances in litter and soil layers across 16 warming experimental sites at 12 circumpolar locations. We investigated the relationship between microbial abundances and nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) isotopic signatures, indicating shifts in microbial processes with warming. Microbial abundances were 2–3 orders of magnitude larger in litter than in soil. Local, site-dependent responses of microbial abundances were variable, and no general effect of warming was detected. The only generalizable trend across sites was a dependence between the warming response ratios and C:N ratio in controls, highlighting a legacy of the vegetation on the microbial response to warming. We detected a positive effect of warming on the litter mass and δ 15 N, which was linked to bacterial abundance under warmed conditions. This effect was stronger in experimental sites dominated by deciduous shrubs, suggesting an altered bacterial N-cycling with increased temperatures, mediated by the vegetation, and with possible consequences on ecosystem feedbacks to climate change.more » « less
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The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) was founded in 1990 as a network of scientists studying responses of tundra ecosystems to ambient and experimental climate change at Arctic and alpine sites across the globe. Common measurement and experimental design protocols have facilitated synthesis of results across sites to gain biome-wide insights of climate change impacts on tundra. This special issue presents results from more than 30 years of ITEX research. The importance of snow regimes, bryophytes, and herbivory are highlighted, with new protocols and studies proposed. The increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events is shown to have strong effects on plant reproduction. The most consistent plant trait response across sites is an increase in vegetation height, especially for shrubs. This will affect surface energy balance, carbon and nutrient dynamics and trophic level interactions. Common garden studies show adaptation responses in tundra species to climate change but they are species and regionally specific. Recommendations are made including establishing sites near northern communities to increase reciprocal engagement with local knowledge holders and establishing multi-factor experiments. The success of ITEX is based on collegial cooperation among researchers and the network remains focused on documenting and understanding impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems.more » « less
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Open top chambers (OTCs) were adopted as the recommended warming mechanism by the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) network in the early 1990’s. Since then, OTCs have been deployed across the globe. Hundreds of papers have reported the impacts of OTCs on the abiotic environment and the biota. Here we review the impacts of the OTC on the physical environment, with comments on the appropriateness of using OTCs to characterize the response of biota to warming. The purpose of this review is to guide readers to previously published work and to provide recommendations for continued use of OTCs to understand the implications of warming on low stature ecosystems. In short, the OTC is a useful tool to experimentally manipulate temperature, however the characteristics and magnitude of warming varies greatly in different environments, therefore it is important to document chamber performance to maximize the interpretation of biotic response. When coupled with long-term monitoring, warming experiments are a valuable means to understand the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems.more » « less
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The relative contribution of bryophytes to plant diversity, primary productivity, and ecosystem functioning increases towards colder climates. Bryophytes respond to environmental changes at the species level, but because bryophyte species are relatively difficult to identify, they are often lumped into one functional group. Consequently, bryophyte function remains poorly resolved. Here, we explore how higher resolution of bryophyte functional diversity can be encouraged and implemented in tundra ecological studies. We briefly review previous bryophyte functional classifications and the roles of bryophytes in tundra ecosystems and their susceptibility to environmental change. Based on shoot morphology and colony organization, we then propose twelve easily distinguishable bryophyte functional groups. To illustrate how bryophyte functional groups can help elucidate variation in bryophyte effects and responses, we compiled existing data on water holding capacity, a key bryophyte trait. Although plant functional groups can mask potentially high interspecific and intraspecific variability, we found better separation of bryophyte functional group means compared with previous grouping systems regarding water holding capacity. This suggests that our bryophyte functional groups truly represent variation in the functional roles of bryophytes in tundra ecosystems. Lastly, we provide recommendations to improve the monitoring of bryophyte community changes in tundra study sites.more » « less
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